Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Background on the Global Warming Debate
As you may or may not know one of the more controversial topics in the world today is global warming.
  • Some people believe that global warming is a serious threat to our society, economically, socially, politically, and action must be taken immediately to try to alleviate it's effects.
  • Others believe global warming to be a myth and any actions taken in response to global warming will be harmful to the economy and therefore society as a whole.
  • These are the extreme viewpoints. There are many who believe somewhere in the middle when it comes to global warming issues (such as, it's happening, but it is not a threat, or it can lead to minor problems, so let's find a way to adjust), and equally many who simply do not have an opinion.
This week, part one of the Global Warming Debate, we will present the facts about global warming, the basic arguments presented by both sides, and the political climate with regards to global warming. You will be responsible for interpreting various viewpoints on an issue, and formulating your own opinion based on the facts, and the quality of the reasoning. It is perfectly possible for two people to look at the same facts, and hear the same arguments, and come to different conclusions about what needs to be done.

So what is the problem?
The problem is that the global average temperature has been rising in recent decades. NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies has a page showing these changes of the global average temperature, as well as changes locations and in different seasons. The 2000 year temperature trend also shows the warmer temperatures this century. Many people believe this temperature change is associate with increases in carbon dioxide. This is because of the greenhouse effect.
Some have criticized the validity of the data showing an increase in global mean temperature because satellite data has shown the opposite trend. However, this opposite trend is focused mainly on the temperatures in the upper atmosphere, whereas the surface temperature trends shown above are only for the surface.
The next questions involve the actual relationship betweengreenhouse gases and temperature increases, as well as whether or not us humans are actually causing the greenhouse gases to increase.

Some believe that climates will change significantly as a result of global warming. Look at a few examples in the Midwest, according to this link, Wisconsin summers in 2095 will be the equivalent of Arkansas summer now. This could lead to adverse conditions for certain species of plants and animals, disrupting the food supply, or in other cases, increase the length of the growing season, adding to the food supply. Many also believe that global warming will lead to more disease being spread from the tropics, sea level rise as a result of melting polar ice caps, more hurricanes, and fires. See early warning signs.

Feedback Loops
There are many theories on Global Warming, some of which involve the ideas of feedback loops.
  • A positive feedback loop is one that amplifies changes.
An example of this the world's population. With a fixed birth rate, the population of the globe will continue to grow (until checked). Large populations cause large numbers of births and large numbers of births result in larger population. The change gets amplified each step. These feedback loops are dangerous.
  • A negative feedback loop is one that tend to mitigate a change.
An example of this is homeostasis, the maintenance of body temperature. As a person's body gets too hot, (s)he begins to sweat in an attempt to lower the temperature. If their body is too cool,(s)he will begin to shiver in an attempt to increase the temperature.
http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/Images/MacroscFig52.GIF
Global warming is likely to be amplified by a few key positive feedback loops...
  • Ice and Snow As the earth warms, the levels of ice and snow decrease, this decreases the surface albedo, allowing for an increase in absorbed solar radiation at Earth's surface. This leads to more warming and less ice and snow cover.

  • Water Vapor As the earth warms, so does the atmosphere, this increases the amount of water vapor the atmosphere can hold. Warmer temperatures mean more evaporation, leading to a higher amount of water vapor, the most powerful greenhouse gas in existence, and consequentially even higher temperatures.
http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~aalopez/aos101/wk7/lab6wvfeedback.jpg


Three effects are poorly understood...
  1. Changes in cloud cover could dampen the effects, especially if they are low clouds. Most climate models forecast that this will be the phenomenon that eventually brings the earth back to equilibrium.

  1. Aerosols may or may not counteract global warming. Some studies have shown aerosols to block out a significant amount of incoming solar radiation, others have not.

  1. The ocean circulation may change leading to varying effects in different parts of the world. Although "The Day After Tomorrow" is not a plausible scenario, many scientists believe that although the earth will warm as a whole, some regions, especially western Europe, may cool as a result of weaker ocean circulation.
These effects make global warming scenarios very different.



The debate mainly pits environmentalists against economists.
  • A majority of environmentalists and scientists believe global warming is occurring and is an issue that needs to be dealt with. Environmentalists say that other species, even the dinosaurs, could have died off in the past as a result of climate change, and we could suffer the same fate.
  • A majority of economists and businesspeople, more concerned with the economy, do not see global warming as an issue. Economists often point to previous claims by scientists that turned out to be untrue or contradictory to the current consensus.



The Global Warming Debate:



Points made by Supporters
Points made by Opponents
  • Rise in CO2 and other Greenhouse gases are anthropogenic.
  • Historical Temperature records show an increase of 0.4-0.8°C in the last 100 years.
  • This is an unusually warm period for the last 1000 years.
  • CO2 is a first order forcing of Climate Change.
  • There will be longterm ramifications, the effects of global warming will be felt centuries in the future.
  • Climate models can only reproduce the current trends if they use Greenhouse gas forcing, these models show that there will be warming and a rise of sea level.
  • IPCC report summerises the state of Climate Science.
  • IPCC draws conclusions from Climate models with acknowledged weakness in cloud physics schemes.
  • There is a difference between correlation and causation. Just because the temperature were observed to rise around the start of the Industrial Revolution does not mean the Industrial Rev. caused the temperatures to increase.
  • Earth's climate has been both colder and warmer than today, and these periods are not explained by mechanisims that involve human influences.
  • Climate Science can not make a definative prediction yet, the computer climate models are still evolving to include all the feedback mechanisms.
  • Global temperatures are directly correlated with solar (sunspot) activity.

8 comments:

  1. Kami Buist
    I think global warming is happening because when you go to Salt Lake City you can see how bad the pollution is down there. Another reason why I think it is happening is the polar ices caps are melting because of the temperatures are changing because of how we are polluting our world. When you leave your house you can see all the changes that are going on like the weather isn't how it used to be like in the winter we would have more snow and we don't then when summer comes it gets hotter than normal.
    Another reason I think global warming is true is because our air we breathe has gotten really bad because of the factories and us burning the fossil fuel and us using our cars for everything we do and we throw or rappers and our trash out of our cars. With all of that going on the greenhouse effect also has a role in the global warming it keeps in all the co2 that we burn and doesn't let it escape out so it warms up or earth and so that is why I think global warming is true and real.

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  2. My opinion on Global warming is that I believe that it is happening and it causing so much damage to the earth and it isn't very hard to tell that global warming is happening because if you get up just high enough you can see all the pollution that surrounds us but we don't ever see it from down on the ground, most people don't notice this because they refuse to believe that it is really happening. Global warming is happening and we knew that because in this article it states the because of the greenhouse effect temperatures are beginning to rise and ice caps are melting and that causes global warming that's a part of global warming but nobody understands that and from all the garbage and factories the pollution in the air is becoming even worse which is what leads to global warming getting worse but I believe that if everyone try's and maybe we don't run such harmful factories that we can reduce global warming by a lot but all i have to say is the global warming is happening and we can stop it.

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  3. I personally think that Global Warming is a real thing and stuff. I do agree that it is bad for our environment. But, in other cases sometime bad is good. Like if there wasn't anything bad in the environment then what is the point in living a natural perfect life. Sometimes it is good to not have a perfect life so that you can learn new things. It just has to happen. It is like when you get sick you are getting used to it and that it is going to be harder to get and that your body know how to fight it off. The Carbon dioxide is bad for your body but if you didn't have it in the air your body would have no freaking clue how to fight it off. What would you do if you lived a perfect life? I honestly would get so bored and tired of it if we didn't have anything bad in our lives. Like, don't get me wrong i would be nice if it could happen a little more often but seriously you need bad stuff to know how to handle it and everything.
    My argument is thinking it is real but just isn't going to harm us so bad that we all disappear.

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  4. i believe global warming is happening but its the way the earth is self-sustaining. the earth has been around for millions of years. im sure its not gonna just heat up and kill everything. i dont know how it works but the earth is gonna heat up, a giant chunk of ice is gonna break away from the north pole, and then we will be plunged into another ice age.

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  5. i believe that global warming really is happening, and i also believe its because of how people are treating the earth. I mean we have proof that global average temperature is rising over the recent decades. I don't think that it will ever get better either. it seems that the more educated and the more technology we have, it is only making global warming more severe. i dont know how people think we are not responsible or they think global warming is not happening because its obvious that it is. we have a lot of data, the seasons keep changing more and more drastically, what else could be causing that? I totally believe that global warming is happening.

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  6. My personal opinion is that I don't know both sides of global warming have great points and provide information that prove that it is or isn't I feel like the earth is warming but it's a a cycle and that cycle could be accelerated by pollution but just as it get's hotter it will in return become colder. The ozone is becoming deteriorated by carbon being released into the air so in summer more heat comes in but in winter the heat can't be stored as well so it will be a colder winter so I will stay a middle man til science says other wise and proves one true.

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  7. I believe that global warming is going on for a reason. I don't think that there is really anything that we can do to get rid of it, only reduce it. I agree that it's bad for our planet but maybe we don't realize that it's an important part of our planet's functioning. I honestly believe that if we were to get rid of global warming then our planet would in a way spaz out and nothing and no one would know how to function. Yes, our air quality is bad and it's causing health problems, and our temperatures are rising rapidly but nothing can ever be perfect, including our planet.

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  8. I think that global warming is happening. You can tell in certain places how back it can effect. Sometimes it's not bad to where no one can notice it. I mean, I believe it can cause health problems and make people really sick because of the air, but nothing can really change it. A lot of people don't care if it effects everyone or the planet. A lot of people don't even bother thinking about global warming and how it effects the earth.

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